Ranking Mid-Major Teams with the Best Odds to Make The Playoffs

The 2024 college football season has been full of surprises through five weeks. Teams like Florida State have fallen to the college football basement, while other teams have been shocking surprises. Some teams like Northern Illinois surprised fans and gained momentum early but have slid back into reality. Furthermore, teams like UNLV have faced NIL drama and seem to have improved, even though their original starting quarterback has decided to sit out. Moreover, teams like Boise State have shown the most strength with current Heisman candidate Ashton Jeanty. Where do these two mid-major teams stand against other mid-major teams in the rankings heading into October?

The teams in the ranking are being pulled from the best odds according to Fanduel.

Honorable Mention: Army Black Knights and Navy Midshipmen

These two schools are not listed on Fanduel’s odds and probably will not make the playoffs in the long run. However, up to this point, both of these teams have been pleasant surprises. Both are 4-0 with some pretty commanding wins. Every game for both teams has been won has been by double digits. However, at the same time to this point, they have both had relatively weak schedules.

Navy’s remaining strength of schedule is ranked 69th in the nation and Army’s is ranked 72nd. Most of the strength of these schedules comes from one game in common. Both teams have to play Notre Dame.

This game for both teams is later in the season and at home. However, by then it is unlikely that either team will still be undefeated. Both teams have had a strong start to the season and teams struggle to play them because of their unique playing style.

Will they be relevant players on the college football landscape by the end of the season? Probably not, but no one knows and this could be the beginning of an exciting story.

No. 5: Memphis Tigers

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The Memphis Tigers current record is 4-1. The hype train began to build after beating Florida State on the road. However, it instantly vanished after losing to Navy 56-44 the following week. This quickly put Memphis back under the radar.

However, the team’s season is far from over. The Tigers have a fairly easy schedule remaining and could be the perfect opportunity to rebuild momentum. Their next big game will be against the North Texas Mean Green. The Mean Green are currently 4-1, however, their wins are against weak opponents.

The Memphis Tigers’ biggest opponent will be the Tulane Green Wave at the end of the season. Tulane is currently 3-2 with a nail-biter loss to the Kansas State Wildcats and 15 point loss to Oklahoma. They are a team with potential playoff hopes as well if they can get back on track and could make for a huge game in November.

With their one loss, the Memphis Tigers are a team that could fly under the radar, especially with the hype of some other teams. The team is fairly talented from top to bottom with a good quarterback in Seth Henigan, however, their one loss could be what comes back to bite them.

Current FanDuel Odds: +1100

No. 4: Liberty Flames

The Liberty Flames are one of three undefeated mid-major teams in this ranking. However, their schedule has been nothing but weak. Up to this point in the season the team has had a weak schedule and already struggled against a horrible New Mexico State Aggies team. However, they are 4-0 to this point and that gives them a slight edge.

The toughest two teams remaining on the Flames’ schedule are the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers and the Sam Houston Bearkats. The Bearkats have had a relatively weak schedule so far this season but currently sit at 4-1 and look like they have improved vastly compared to last season.

Liberty is a team that the easy schedule could play to their advantage as long as they play strong football. However, if they end the season undefeated it will probably not be enough to make the playoffs. With a weaker schedule, the team will need much more convincing wins than a one-score game to New Mexico State.

However, because of their recent history and currently being undefeated the team up to this point has the reputation of one of the stronger mid-major teams.

Current FanDuel Odds: +430

No. 3: James Madison Dukes

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The James Madison Dukes know how to win. Since moving up to FBS the team has gone 23-5. In their first season under new head coach Bob Chesney the team was expected to have a slight regression. However, so far the team has had anything but that. They are currently undefeated with a 4-0 record with some pretty good wins.

The team started the season with a 30-7 against the Charlotte 49ers. Then followed that up with a close 13-6 win against Gardner-Webb. Then the Dukes continued to blaze their trail through North Carolina, scoring a whopping 70 points on the North Carolina Tar Heels in Chapel Hill. The team so far has been nothing but dominant.

Their schedule for the remainder of the season is against Sun Belt opponents and the only two that stand out as threats are the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers and the Appalachian State Mountaineers. However, if James Madison has a target on their head as any Sun Belt team will be looking to ruin their season and they know that.

Furthermore, due to Hurricane Helene Appalachian State has already canceled one of their games. The university has a whole was hit hard by the storm and is still picking up the pieces. The Mountaineers plan on playing their next game against Marshall.

James Madison does not play Appalachian State until near the end of November. Classes are currently canceled until October 15th for the Mountaineers and an updated timetable will be given to them on October 9th. If students do return to campus, opposing teams should expect Kidd Brewer Stadium to be packed and loud, especially against James Madison.

Current FanDuel Odds: +1000

No. 2: UNLV Rebels

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UNLV was originally an under-the-radar time that was quietly beginning to surprise people. Then last week they became the center of attention. Their starting quarterback Matthew Sluka decided he would be sitting out the remainder of the season due to an NIL dispute. Sluka transferred from Holy Cross to the Rebels in January and apparently, there was an agreement in place with offensive coordinator Brennan Marion that he would receive $100,000. According to Sluka, however, up to the point when he decided to redshirt, he had only received $3,000.

Sluka led the team to three wins, with two coming against Big 12 opponents, the Houston Cougars and Kansas Jayhawks. Everyone thought this would derail UNLV’s season, however, it may have had the opposite effect.

In their following game, they were set to play the Fresno State Bulldogs in what was supposed to be a close game. The team turned to another quarterback transfer, Hajj-Malik Williams. Williams transferred from the Campbell Fighting Camels during the offseason and had the game of his life.

He went 13 for 16 passing with 182 yards and three touchdowns. Furthermore, he added 119 yards on the ground with another touchdown. This performance helped lead the team to a 4-0 record with a 59-14 stomping of the Bulldogs and showed the team did not need Sluka.

However, they have a big test on their schedule as they play the Syracuse Orange. This will be the Rebels’ third game against a Power Four team and their final test on whether they should be taken seriously. Soon after though, they will face the best mid-major team in this ranking in what could be a deciding factor in who goes to the playoffs.

Current FanDuel Odds: +700

No. 1: Boise State Broncos

Even though the Boise State Broncos are 3-1 they are currently without a doubt the number one mid-major team. They have the hype and they have the skill to back it up. The Broncos have been electric and right now anything less than a playoff appearance would be disappointing for the team.

The Broncos one loss came against the Oregon Ducks in Eugene, Oregon. The Ducks are also a heavy favorite to make the playoffs and Boise State only lost by three points. Outside of that they have pretty much dominated the competition. The one last big test for the Broncos will be when they play UNLV on the road at the end of October. However, right now they are playing like there is nothing in their way and one player is showing that motto on the field.

Ashton Jeanty is the best running back in the nation. In four games he is averaging 10.3 yards per carry with 845 yards on the season and 13 touchdowns. He has turned heads across the nation and right now is in the running for the Heisman trophy.

The Broncos are playing surprisingly as well as any top team in the nation and it will be interesting to see if anyone can stop them.

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